Despite the widespread skepticism that followed the 2022 crash, Bitcoin is approaching its all-time high again, while the broader cryptocurrency and NFT markets remain sluggish. 

Meanwhile, many analysts predict a global recession fueled by rising inflation, declining employment, and escalating international conflicts. 

In these uncertain times, I’m reminded of the famous quote by the legendary American investor Peter Lynch. 

Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves. 

My journey in crypto is far from a rags-to-riches tale — quite the opposite. I entered the market just before the 2018 crash and endured a few tough years before things began to turn around. 

Yet, through the ups and downs, I gained invaluable insights that reinforced my long-term belief in blockchain technology and the crypto market. 

As we face what seems like endless doom and gloom, here’s why I believe we’re at the cusp of a historic bull run in Web3 and crypto. 

We are still early bitcoin adopters 

A recent Coinbase survey reveals that about 20% of American adults own cryptocurrency. When comparing this to the S-curve of technology adoption, it’s clear we’re at a pivotal moment in cryptocurrency’s adoption. 

We’re transitioning from the early adopter phase to the mass adoption phase, similar to how personal computers gained widespread use in the 1990s. 

Investing in blockchain technology today is akin to buying stocks in tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, or IBM during their early days, or being an early investor in platforms like Meta, Twitter , and LinkedIn before 2010. 

This is evident from the widespread institutional adoption of Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs, with over 60% of hedge funds now holding exposure to a Bitcoin ETF. 

However, just as some companies like WorldCom, NorthPoint Communications, and Pets.com failed during the tech boom, not every crypto investment will succeed. This highlights the high-risk, high-reward nature of the market — so it’s crucial to be mindful of these lessons when making investment decisions. 

The cryptocurrency cycles are mind-bogglingly predictable 

A quick look at the Bitcoin chart since inception and you will notice a clear pattern that Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market go through a four-year cycle. 

Every four years Bitcoin goes through a process called halving which reduces the amount of new Bitcoin entering circulation. It is when the reward for mining new Bitcoins is cut in half. 

For example, if miners were getting 12.5 Bitcoins as a reward for mining, they’d only get 6.25 after the halving. This makes new Bitcoins harder to get, which makes them more valuable. As a result, the cost of mining Bitcoin doubles every four years and so does the price. 

After studying the charts, I realized every four years, Bitcoin’s price peaks, then declines for a couple of years, and then rises sharply after the next halving. Look at the charts for the 2017 and 2021 cycle peaks — we’re now on the verge of another bull market post-halving. 

The same trend occurred earlier, with a peak in 2013, a decline, and then another bull run after the 2016 halving. 

The rest of the cryptocurrency market follows as Bitcoin makes its moves. I remember, after the COVID crash in 2020, markets were range-bound for 4–6 months until Bitcoin surged, leading many top 20 altcoins to go 3–5x in just 3–4 months. 

It’s strikingly obvious, yet only a tiny percentage of people capitalize on it, while most end up losing money. 

Why? 

Because investing is a game of emotions. People get greedy during bull runs and fearful near the bottom. Smart investors buy during the bear phase, while most only start investing later — when they should be taking profits. 

This brings me to the other points as to why we might be closer to the bottom and at the cusp of a mega bull run. 

It’s a US Presidential Election year 

2024 is a presidential election year and the statistics are intriguing. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has only delivered negative returns in four election years. 

In essence, the S&P 500 has been positive 83% of election years for an average gain of ~11%+. 

Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, and other web3 assets thrive when the broader markets do well as they are high-risk assets. 

Another interesting statistic is that since 1950, the S&P 500 has never had negative returns in an election year following a negative midterm year, and only once since 1932 in an election year. This suggests a positive market trend for this election year. 

Gains usually occur later in the year, suggesting a potential run-up in the last quarter. However, with the S&P 500 already up 17% this year, this is debatable. 

As traditional markets surge, Bitcoin and the broader crypto/web3 markets tend to follow. These assets being highly volatile, the pumps are often much more significant 

The US Fed rate cuts are coming 

As per a recent Reuters poll, the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings of 2024. There is approximately a 75% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September 2024. 

These rate cuts could be a major catalyst for Bitcoin, as lower interest rates typically increase liquidity in the market. When the Fed cuts rates, borrowing becomes cheaper, encouraging spending and investment. 

This influx of liquidity often drives investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin and other altcoins, which can lead to price increases. 

Additionally, lower returns on traditional assets like bonds may drive investors to alternative stores of value, enhancing Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty. This could set the stage for a Bitcoin surge, followed by a broader web3 bull run. 

Tracking the 18.6-year real estate cycle 

I came across the concept of the 18.6-year real estate cycle in 2019 after reading the book The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking by Phillip J. Anderson. 

In his book, Phil Anderson analyzes over 200 years of U.S. housing cycle data to show how the banking system reacts to prosperity and recession, and how regulations from previous collapses often vanish during boom periods. 

The extensive data defining these cycles ensures their relevance, even now, despite ever-changing politics, markets, economies, and unforeseen global events. 

I initially dismissed this as irrelevant to current market conditions, but after observing the COVID-19 crash and subsequent recovery, I realized its significance. 

The 18.6-year real estate cycle suggests that real estate markets experience a predictable pattern of booms and busts every 18.6 years, driven by long-term economic and demographic factors. Historically, the cycle ranges from 17 to 21 years, averaging 18.6 years with approximately 14 years of growth and 4 years of decline. 

Economies in Australia, the UK, and other Western countries often mirror major market moves in the US. This cycle involves recovery, expansion, oversupply, and recession, affecting property values and investment opportunities. 

As per the cycle, we are now in the midst of the winner's curse phase when the market seems to be going up despite the rising recession fears and escalating global conflicts. 

Soon, euphoria will set in, recession fears will fade, and the media will herald a golden era. As optimism peaks and everyone expects markets to keep rising, a slow, grinding recession will likely begin in the coming years. 

Until then, markets will continue to climb, leading to a euphoric bull run in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. 

Always do your research 

All things considered, take my analysis with a grain of salt and ensure you conduct thorough research before investing. Never invest in something you don’t understand, that’s what gamblers do. Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing. 

Here are some steps you can take before investing in any crypto token, beyond just looking at the price chart. 

Research the Project: Understand its purpose, technology, team, and investor profile. 

Evaluate the Whitepaper: Review the project’s goals, roadmap, and technical details. Review token allocation and unlock schedules. 

Understand Regulatory Risks: Be aware of legal and regulatory considerations, if any. 

Review Community Feedback: Look at user reviews and community discussions. Most web3 projects thrive or fail because of their communities. 

Closing Thoughts 

Despite skepticism after the 2022 crash, Bitcoin is nearing its all-time high, even as broader crypto and NFT markets lag. The market is driven by emotions — investors often get greedy during bull runs and fearful near the bottom, leading to missed opportunities. 

As we face what seems like endless doom and gloom, we are at the cusp of a historic bull run in web3 and crypto. Here’s why. 

We are still early adopters of Bitcoin and blockchain technology. 

Cryptocurrency cycles are highly predictable, with historical patterns indicating we are near a mega-bull run. 

US presidential election years often boost traditional markets, which could benefit Bitcoin and crypto. 

Upcoming US Fed rate cuts may increase liquidity, driving investments into Bitcoin and sparking a crypto bull run. 

We’re in the winner’s curse phase of the 18.6-year real estate cycle, signaling a bull run before a potential recession. 

The last few months in the web3 world have been quite boring, causing many to lose interest. However, these quiet periods are often followed by significant moves, especially when the broader macro market remains bullish.